Tuesday night’s election was certainly a night to be remembered. Former President Trump, now being deemed the comeback kid, won his second term to the Oval Office in impressive fashion. As I write this blog, things have not totally settled out, but it is very likely that President-Elect Trump will secure 312 electoral votes and win the popular vote by nearly 5 million. In today’s world, this victory is a clear mandate from the American people.
In Congress, the dust continues to settle but it is clear that the Republicans will once again be in the majority in the Senate. While there are still three states to have yet to declare a winner, I anticipate that Senate Republicans will hold 53 to 54 seats. And with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) stepping down from the post and Republicans selecting a new leader next Wednesday, November 13, there will be a new face to the efforts in that chamber starting in 2025. The chatter around The Hill is that Senator John Thune (R-SD), the current Senate Minority Whip, will get the nod in leading the chamber next Congress.
In the House we are still awaiting results on about 40 races. Republicans have currently secured 205 seats while the Democrats have 190. From what I have read and am hearing, Republicans will likely retain the majority with a slim margin of probably four to five seats. So, nothing too different from what we are currently seeing in the House chamber.
So, what will all these changes mean for Trump 2.0 and Congress come the turn of the New Year when President-Elect Trump takes his oath of office on January 20?
First and foremost, we will see a significant slowdown with the onslaught of unnecessary rulemaking that has come out of the current White House over the last four years. I anticipate that the Trump Administration will issue several executive orders to freeze rulemaking and begin the process to rollback several federal rules and regulations at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Occupational Safety & Health Administration (OSHA), among others. We also anticipate a few other actions that Trump 2.0 may take, including:
It is also clear that priority number one for President-Elect Trump will be a comprehensive tax proposal which could include the following:
On trade, Trump has floated anywhere between 10 to 100% tariff on all goods imported into the U.S., a move he says would eliminate the trade deficit. Trump has wide leeway to impose these tariffs without Congressional approval. This has and will continue to be an area in which we disagree with President-Elect Trump regarding the impact tariffs have on the ACD membership.
The new Trump Administration could pursue rail safety reform given Trump’s statements following the East Palestine, OH derailment and the fact Vice President-Elect J.D. Vance led rail safety reform legislation this Congress that stalled in the Senate, despite having enough support to pass.
Assuming the House stays Republican, I think there is a solid chance that a number of these efforts will succeed to the betterment of ACD member companies, especially when it comes to regulatory de-escalation and tax relief to assist businesses with growth.
History has clearly shown that the party that controls both the White House and Congress ends up not being as productive as it should be and losing significantly during the next mid-term election. I hope with Trump 2.0 and some new Congressional leadership that the mistakes of the past remain there, and that bipartisan progress can once again reign supreme.
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