2024 Election Guide
Presidential Elections Congressional Elections Gubernatorial Elections Statehouse Elections Super-Majorities and Trifectas
2024 Election Guide
ACD encourages all members and employees to exercise their right to vote in the upcoming elections on November 5, 2024. Voting is a fundamental civic duty, and your participation helps shape our future. Whether you vote by absentee ballot, early in-person, or on Election Day, be sure to have a plan in place. Every vote counts, and your voice matters!
Harris v. Trump: On the Issues
Presidential Election
The 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be one for the history books. With President Joe Biden not seeking re-election, Vice President Kamala Harris (D) faces off against former President Donald J. Trump (R). Key issues such as immigration, inflation, the economy, abortion rights, and the future of democratic governance will play critical roles in deciding who will take office in January 2025.
Election models predict an exceptionally tight race, with the outcome likely hinging on seven key swing states: Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia.
(Source: 270toWin)
2024 Presidential Election Models/Forecasts
Congressional Elections
On January 20, 2025, either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will take the oath of office. It remains uncertain whether the new Congress will be controlled by Republicans, Democrats, or remain split as it is now. With the election just months away, forecasts for House races show Republicans and Democrats in a nearly even contest for control. However, in the Senate, Republicans hold the advantage and are more likely to gain a majority.
House of Representatives
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election every two years. Assuming there are no vacancies and no third-party members, either party needs a minimum of 218 seats to secure control. Currently, Republicans hold a slim majority with 220 seats compared to 212 for Democrats. This year, the Cook Political Report identifies 42 seats as “toss-ups” or leaning toward either party, meaning control of the House will hinge on the outcomes of these closely contested races.
2024 House of Representatives Models/Forecasts
(Source: 270toWin)
(Source: Cook Political Report)
House Races to Watch
(Source: Cook Political Report)
Senate
Democrats currently hold a narrow 51-49 majority in the Senate and face a challenging battle to maintain that control. Of the 34 seats up for election in 2024, Democrats currently hold 23. If Republicans can retain their 11 seats and flip two Democratic-held seats, they will take control of the chamber. With West Virginia almost certain to flip to Republican, the GOP needs to secure just one additional competitive seat (or win the presidency) to gain control.
2024 Senate Models/Forecasts
2024 Senate Races to Watch
(Source: 270toWin)
- Arizona: With incumbent Senator Kyrsten Sinema (D) retiring, the race features Democratic nominee and current U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego against 2022 GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake. Lake narrowly lost her race in 2022, and recent polling shows a tight contest, with Gallego holding a small but consistent lead. Major GOP super PACs have not reserved advertising in the race, reflecting a lack of confidence in Lake's candidacy.
- Maryland: Incumbent Senator Ben Cardin (D) is retiring, leaving this typically solidly Democratic seat open. Democratic nominee Angela Alsobrooks is favored to win but faces a significant challenge from popular former two-term Republican Governor Larry Hogan. Polls indicate a closer-than-expected race, with Hogan trailing Alsobrooks by just a few points. He will need to counter strong support for Vice President Harris in the state and convince her voters to consider him.
- Michigan: Incumbent Senator Debbie Stabenow (D) is retiring, leading to a toss-up race between Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers. Michigan is a key swing state in the presidential election, and the outcome here may hinge on whether Harris or Trump carries the state.
- Montana: Incumbent Democratic Senator John Tester, known for close races, won his last re-election with just 50.3% of the vote in 2018. In 2024, he faces a significant challenge, with Trump—who remains popular in Montana—at the top of the ballot. Both parties are investing heavily in the race, but Republican challenger Tim Sheehy currently leads in polling. This seat is crucial for Democrats if they hope to retain control of the Senate.
- Nevada: Incumbent Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen is challenged by Republican veteran Sam Brown. Given that the Silver State is a toss-up in the presidential election, this race is expected to be highly competitive. However, Rosen has consistently polled better than Biden/Harris and has significantly outspent Brown. While the race remains close and could tighten as the election approaches, Rosen is currently a slight favorite to retain her seat.
- Nebraska: Incumbent Republican Senator Deb Fischer faces an unexpected challenge from independent union leader Dan Osborn. Polling indicates a tight race, with some polls showing Osborn ahead. He has attracted some independent voters by pledging to remain an independent in the Senate, avoiding affiliation with either party. While Fischer still enjoys a strong advantage in this red state, the race is closer than anticipated.
- Ohio: Incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is seeking re-election in a state that has increasingly leaned red. He is up against Republican Bernie Moreno, a former auto dealer. Trump won Ohio by over 8 points in both 2016 and 2020, and Democrats have struggled in recent statewide races. Brown, who has served in the Senate since 2007, possesses a unique political identity in the state, but he will need to persuade many Trump voters to cross party lines.
- Pennsylvania: Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. faces Republican Dave McCormick. Casey is a well-known figure in the state, being the son of a popular former governor and serving in the Senate since 2007. McCormick, a former hedge fund executive, is running his second statewide campaign and has a well-funded operation. Given Pennsylvania's status as a critical swing state in the presidential election, both parties will focus on turning out their bases for their respective candidates.
- Texas: Incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz faces a challenge from Democratic nominee Colin Allred. Similar to his 2018 race against Beto O’Rourke, Cruz is up against a popular, charismatic representative. Polling shows the race within a few points, but Cruz is expected to prevail in another close contest.
- Wisconsin: Incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin is challenged by venture capitalist Eric Hovde. According to the Cook Political Report, Wisconsin is one of the closest Senate races among the five battlegrounds polled, with Baldwin’s seven-point lead in August shrinking to just two points. Wisconsin is one of the most evenly divided states in the nation, and the 2022 Senate race was decided by a mere one point. While Baldwin maintains a small but consistent lead, the parity in spending and tightening polls indicate Hovde has closed the gap despite earlier missteps.
Additionally, retirements or resignations in non-competitive seats have positioned the following candidates as highly likely to become U.S. Senators in 2025:
- California: Democratic Senator Laphonza Butler, appointed after Senator Feinstein's passing, has announced she will not run for re-election. With Republicans not winning a statewide election since 2011, Democratic nominee Adam Schiff is virtually guaranteed to secure this seat.
- Delaware: Democratic Senator Tom Carper is retiring in this solidly blue state, paving the way for Democratic nominee Lisa Blunt Rochester, who is expected to win.
- New Jersey: Following his conviction on federal bribery, extortion, and other charges, Democratic Senator Bob Menendez resigned on August 20, 2024. Governor Murphy appointed a caretaker to the seat until the election, but Democratic nominee Andy Kim is widely expected to win the race.
- West Virginia: Current Democratic Senator Joe Manchin is not seeking re-election in this red state. The Republican candidate, popular Governor Jim Justice, is almost certain to secure this seat for the GOP.
State Elections
Gubernatorial
Although several states will hold Gubernatorial elections, very few races are shaping up to be competitive. However, some, while not close, are still very consequential to the legislative outlook for the next 2-4 years.
- New Hampshire: This highly competitive race will significantly impact the dynamics within the New Hampshire State Legislature for the next four years. With incumbent Republican Governor Chris Sununu stepping down, former Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte is set to face Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig. Given the narrow margins in both chambers of the legislature, this contest could have major implications for down-ballot races and the policies enacted in the coming years.
- North Carolina: Incumbent Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, is term-limited, leaving behind a legacy defined by his frequent use of the veto pen. He has served as a roadblock against many conservative policies emerging from North Carolina's overwhelmingly Republican legislature. While the race to succeed him was considered competitive a few months ago, a series of scandals have severely hindered Republican Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson's campaign, leading to a significant decline in his poll numbers. Democratic candidate Josh Stein, currently the state’s Attorney General, is now projected to win by a margin of 10-15% in recent surveys. Stein is expected to wield the veto pen as a crucial tool in his governance as well.
- Vermont: Similar to Cooper, Republican incumbent Governor Phil Scott has faced supermajorities from the opposing party throughout his tenure. Known for using his veto power to block legislation from one of the most progressive legislatures in the nation, Scott is not term-limited and is seeking re-election for a fifth term. As one of the most popular governors in the country, he is expected to win comfortably.
- Washington: Incumbent Governor Jay Inslee, a Democrat, will not seek re-election, opening the door for challengers Dave Reichert (R) and Bob Ferguson (D). This race is shaping up to be one of the most competitive gubernatorial elections in the nation, with some polls indicating a close contest within the margin of error. With Democrats currently holding a trifecta of power in Washington, a victory for Republicans in this race would be a significant achievement.
State House
- Arizona State House & Senate: Arizona is poised to be the only state in 2024 where both chambers of the state legislature are in play. With Republicans holding just a two-seat majority in both the House and Senate, the balance of power is exceptionally fragile. National dynamics, particularly from the Presidential and Senate elections, could significantly influence voter turnout and the outcomes in these races.
- Alaska State House: Alaska’s House of Representatives is one of the most unique in the country, currently controlled by a coalition of Democrats, independents, and moderate Republicans. This coalition has been vital in passing bipartisan legislation. Several districts, especially those in Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valley, are expected to be battlegrounds due to significant demographic shifts and changing political landscapes. Additionally, the state's recently implemented Ranked-Choice voting system is likely to impact the election outcomes.
- Michigan State House: The Michigan House of Representatives has one of the slimmest majorities in the nation, narrowly controlled by Democrats with 56 seats to Republicans' 54. Key battlegrounds are anticipated in suburban districts around Detroit and Grand Rapids. These races will be crucial in determining control of the House. The introduction of new district maps following the 2020 census has created both opportunities and challenges for both parties, potentially reshaping the dynamics in Lansing come January.
- New Hampshire State House & Senate: With the largest legislature in the country, New Hampshire is always full of surprises. The House of Representatives, with just a seven-seat majority in its 400-member body, presents ample opportunities for party flips. In the Senate, Republicans hold a four-seat majority. A significant factor in these races will be the contentious gubernatorial election, where former Senator Kelly Ayotte (R) faces off against Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D).
- Pennsylvania State House: Like many elections in the Keystone State, the Pennsylvania State House of Representatives is likely to come down to the wire. With a razor-thin single-seat majority, control of the House hangs in the balance, making it a highly competitive and unpredictable race.
Super-Majorities and Trifectas
While some states are grappling with tight margins, others are focused on building and maintaining coveted supermajorities and trifectas of power. A supermajority occurs when a single party possesses enough votes within its governing body to override a governor’s veto. This significantly enhances the majority party’s ability to advance its priorities and govern unilaterally without facing pushback from the executive branch. Conversely, a trifecta exists when the same party controls majorities in both the upper and lower chambers, along with the Governor’s Mansion. This situation also provides the majority party with a unique opportunity to implement its agenda without opposition. While the outcomes of toss-up elections in these states may not alter control, they will undoubtedly influence legislative agendas for the next two years.
(Source: Multistate.us)
For further questions about ACD’s 2024 Election Guide please contact Tyler Farrar, Manager of Government Affairs at tfarrar@acd-chem.com.
